Polls Tighten, and the Mac is Back!

Posted by caleb on Oct 23, 2008 in Presidential Election 2008 |
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It’s easy to become discouraged in this current media climate. Almost every day, a new poll comes out with Barack Obama 9, 12, or even 14 points ahead of John McCain. On the opposite days, the spit articles in our faces about how Sarah Palin is more of a drag on the GOP ticket than George W. Bush is.

If you’re like me, you probably come away from these things saying, “What?!” For one thing, there is no possible way that an American election in the twenty-first century could have a spread this wide. It’s just not possible. Today, instead of harsh words meant to spur people on to involvement in American Democracy, I’m espousing words of encouragement.

  1. The AP released a poll yesterday showing voting preferences among likely voters. The results? Obama’s in the lead, by one point, well within the margin of error (Obama 44%, McCain 43%, Undecided Still Persuadable [equally from McCain, Obama, and Independent Categories] 24%). 
  2. The IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll for October 22 showed a difference of only 3.7%. This poll was the most accurate in 2004. In fact, McCain gained in many key groups over the course of the past week (Including being up a whopping 20 points with suburbanites!). And they say this election is over? Looks like they didn’t ask us. That leads us to point three:
  3. Both Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity pointed out today that the majority of the “unfavorable” polls (the aforementioned outliers) oversample Democrats, to the point where there are sometimes 25% more Demos in a polling sample than Republicans. Looks like someone didn’t pass Elementary Statistics.
  4. McCain now leads by 2 points in Florida and Ohio, and is only 2 points down in Virginia. Pennsylvania is seen as winnable, as well (His campaign says he only needs to win 2,000 more votes in each county than Pres. Bush did to win the state’s 21 electoral votes).
It looks like things may be looking up, and that’s a good thing. I’ve heard many people attribute it directly to Joe Wurzelbacher, better known as “Joe the Plumber.” Fact is, people don’t want their hard-earned coin going to someone who’s never/doesn’t pay a dime in income taxes to the federal government. It’s just not right, and it goes against everything America stands for. Basically, we’re “discovering” (it’s not like we didn’t know it already) that Obama is a socialist, through and through. It’s as if his connections (Ayers, Wright, Flagel, Rezko) weren’t enough. It’s fine by me, because, folks, we’re in this to win this.
Let’s fight to the finish.

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l
Oct 24, 2008 at 12:28 am

Your obviously not a math major either, 44% + 43% + 24%(undecided) = 111 % ??
Also aren’t you friends with that girl who faked the assault?


 
Caleb
Oct 24, 2008 at 12:32 am

Actually, I’m a math minor, but I should have clarified. This is directly from the AP article I quoted (as reprinted on My Way News):

“Some 24 percent of likely voters were deemed still persuadable, meaning they were either undecided or said they might switch candidates. Those up-for-grabs voters came about equally from the three categories: undecideds, McCain supporters and Obama backers.”

So, there *are* 24% of voters that are still undecided, but my wording was confusing. I’ll fix it in the article.


 

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